Oil & Gas

The European Commission will unveil its long-awaited roadmap to eliminate Russian oil and gas imports on May 6, after multiple delays. The EU has pledged to quit Russian fossil fuels by 2027 in response to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, but the specific plan to achieve this goal had been pushed back. The initial timeline for the strategy was set for the previous month, but shifting geopolitical and trade concerns delayed its release.

Delays in publishing the plan were partially attributed to uncertainty over U.S. trade policy, particularly the potential for tariffs under President Donald Trump. EU officials noted that energy could play a significant role in broader EU-U.S. trade talks. These complications have influenced how the EU shapes its energy independence strategy and negotiates alternative supply agreements to replace Russian resources.

Despite a major drop in Russian pipeline gas since 2022, the EU actually increased its imports of Russian LNG in 2024, accounting for 19% of total gas and LNG supplies. Notably, the EU has not imposed sanctions on Russian gas, unlike Russian oil. Hungary has strongly opposed sanctions on Russian energy, and unanimous approval is needed among EU member states for such measures to take effect. Several other governments have also expressed reluctance to impose restrictions on Russian LNG without secure alternatives.

To address this dependency, the Commission is exploring other options but has not disclosed concrete proposals. One suggestion from analysts is the imposition of tariffs on Russian gas, while increased imports from countries like the U.S. are also being considered. U.S. LNG played a crucial role during the 2022 energy crisis, becoming the EU’s third-largest supplier. However, some EU diplomats are concerned about growing dependence on U.S. energy, especially given Trump’s stance that LNG exports could be used as leverage in trade negotiations.