Oil & Gas

Iraq plans to set a fixed ceiling on its oil exports until the end of 2024, irrespective of future decisions made by the OPEC+ alliance regarding production cuts. This decision, based on information obtained by the Washington-based Specialized Energy Platform, means that Iraq will adhere to its commitment to limit crude oil exports to 3.3 million barrels per day throughout 2024. This pledge was made after Baghdad reduced its oil exports by 130,000 barrels per day in March, aiming to compensate for exceeding the OPEC+ production target of 4 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024.

Stabilizing oil exports, as interpreted by Energy Outlook Advisors, signifies two key points. Firstly, Iraq is anticipating an increase in production by OPEC+ in the second half of 2024 to offset the overproduction in the first half of the year. If the current voluntary cuts are maintained until the end of 2024, Iraq will likely continue to surpass its production share for the entire year. Secondly, this decision implies that there will be no oil pumping from northern Iraq to the Turkish port of Ceyhan in 2024.

In terms of export numbers, Iraqi oil exports, including crude and derivatives, saw an increase in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period last year. The average exports during this period rose to 3.92 million barrels per day, up from 3.49 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2023. Crude oil exports alone averaged 3.36 million barrels per day from January to March 2024, compared to 3.20 million barrels per day in the same quarter of 2023.

January 2024 witnessed a notable increase in Iraqi oil exports to 3.37 million barrels per day, up from 3.13 million barrels per day in January 2023. However, there was a slight month-on-month decrease in February 2024 to 3.35 million barrels per day, though this was still higher than February 2023, which recorded 3.33 million barrels per day. March 2024 saw a significant increase both monthly and annually, with exports rising to 3.38 million barrels per day compared to 3.14 million barrels per day in March 2023.