Oil & Gas

OPEC+ is expected to approve another increase in its oil production target for July during its upcoming meeting, according to sources familiar with the discussions. Despite ongoing disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and geopolitical tensions involving Iran, the group appears committed to gradually restoring oil supply to the market.

The anticipated increase of approximately 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) would match the adjustment agreed for June after accounting for the withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates from OPEC+ in May. The decision would signal that the alliance is moving toward normal production policies despite recent challenges affecting global oil trade and supply routes.

Since April, seven key OPEC+ members—including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman—have been implementing a phased reversal of production cuts introduced in 2023. Although output quotas have risen, actual production has remained significantly lower due to export reductions by several Gulf producers, resulting in a notable decline in overall group output.

If approved, the July increase would leave roughly 567,000 bpd of the original production cuts still to be restored. Maintaining similar monthly increases through August and September could allow OPEC+ to fully unwind the remaining cuts by the end of the third quarter. Meanwhile, additional ministerial meetings scheduled for June are not expected to introduce any major policy changes.