Oil & Gas

OPEC, together with its allies in the OPEC+ group, is preparing for a notable increase in oil output as it anticipates “very strong” demand in the third quarter of 2025. According to Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais, the organization expects a tight supply-demand balance in the months ahead, reflecting robust global economic performance. The group is in the process of reversing years of production cuts that were initially put in place to stabilize the oil market during previous downturns.

Reports from Russia’s RIA news agency, citing remarks made by Al Ghais at last week’s OPEC seminar in Vienna, indicate that the group forecasts a year-on-year demand growth of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025. This surge is largely attributed to economic expansion and increased consumption. Al Ghais emphasized that the third quarter will see particularly strong growth, reinforcing OPEC+’s decision to ramp up production.

Further increases in output are expected, with five sources telling Reuters that OPEC+ is likely to approve another significant supply boost for September. Al Ghais also highlighted that the fourth quarter will maintain solid demand levels, which will continue to tighten market balances. These fundamentals are prompting the group of eight key OPEC+ countries to return additional barrels to the market to meet growing global needs.

Despite this optimistic short-term outlook, OPEC has revised its medium-term demand forecasts downward, citing slower-than-expected economic growth in China. However, the organization remains bullish over the long term, especially due to projected rising energy consumption in developing economies. OPEC’s 2025 World Oil Outlook estimates global demand will average 105 million barrels per day this year, increasing to 106.3 million bpd in 2026 and reaching 111.6 million bpd by 2029.