Oil & Gas

OPEC forecasts that global oil demand will rise steadily from approximately 103.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2024 to around 122.9–123 mb/d by 2050, indicating no imminent peak in oil consumption. The majority of this increase will be driven by developing regions, with India, Asia, the Middle East, and Africa accounting for an additional 22–22.4 mb/d of demand. India alone is expected to contribute roughly 8 mb/d of that total. This trend reflects continued industrialization and economic expansion in non-OECD countries.

The world population is projected to grow from about 8.2 billion in 2024 to 9.7 billion by 2050. Urbanization will also intensify, with the global urban population increasing by 1.9 billion as urbanization rates rise from 58% to 68%. Simultaneously, global GDP is anticipated to double over this period, primarily due to strong economic growth in developing economies. Average annual GDP growth is expected to be around 2.9% globally and approximately 3.7% in non-OECD nations.

Key sectors driving oil demand growth will include petrochemicals, road transportation, and aviation. Petrochemical demand is projected to rise by 4.9 mb/d, road transport by 4.6 mb/d, and aviation by 4.2 mb/d by 2050. The global vehicle fleet is expected to expand from 1.7 billion vehicles in 2023 to 2.9 billion in 2050. Despite increasing electric vehicle (EV) adoption, internal combustion engine vehicles will still comprise over 70% of the fleet, underscoring the enduring reliance on oil-based fuels.

Global primary energy demand is expected to increase by around 24% between 2024 and 2050, rising from approximately 308 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) to 378 mboe/d. Oil’s share in the global energy mix will remain robust at about 29%, while oil and gas combined are projected to make up more than 53% of the mix throughout the period. Renewables, particularly wind and solar, will see significant growth, increasing to about 14% of primary energy demand, up from 4% today. To meet future demand, the oil sector will require $17–18 trillion in investment, primarily in upstream activities. Meanwhile, production from non-OPEC+ countries is expected to peak by the mid-2030s, after which OPEC+ will grow its output and market share, reaching around 64.1 mb/d and 52% of the market by 2050.