Oil & Gas

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been strategically working to position Turkey as a key energy hub, linking natural gas producers in the east and south with markets in the west. This ambition gained additional momentum following the unexpected fall of the 54-year Assad regime in Syria.

Turkey’s desire to become a major energy hub in Europe also aligns with the growing need to diversify gas supplies in the region, especially as Russia’s influence in the energy market has been increasingly scrutinized. With its advantageous geographical location and robust infrastructure, Turkey has become well-positioned to act as a crucial connector in the global energy supply chain.

A few years ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed the idea of creating a European gas hub in Turkey, shortly after leaks were discovered in the Nord Stream pipelines. Turkey responded cautiously but expressed interest, with Energy Minister Fatih Donmez acknowledging the potential of alternate gas supply routes.

This marked the beginning of a broader conversation about the feasibility of such projects. Since then, Turkey’s role in energy transit has gained significant attention, especially given its heavy reliance on energy imports from Russia, Iraq, and Iran. Despite limited domestic natural resources, Turkey’s strategic location offers a strong advantage in linking producers with European markets.

In 2024, Turkey announced its intent to significantly boost natural gas exports to the European Union, aiming to reduce its dependence on Russian gas. A likely route for these exports is through the re-exportation of Azeri natural gas. This plan requires Turkey to import more Russian gas to fill the gaps, yet it provides Turkey an opportunity to increase its influence over European energy decisions.

Key infrastructure such as the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline and several LNG terminals bolster Turkey’s capabilities in this role. However, before committing to major infrastructure investments, Turkey is seeking demand guarantees from the European Union to ensure the viability of these ventures.

As Europe strives to replace Russian gas supplies, particularly after the expiration of a significant gas deal with Ukraine, Turkey’s role in the energy landscape becomes increasingly crucial. Azerbaijan’s natural gas, which is exported to Turkey, could be redirected to Europe through Bulgaria, though logistical challenges remain.

The potential for expanding capacity via Bulgaria is high, but Turkey is clear that it requires guarantees of demand before proceeding. With Europe needing to secure alternative sources of gas to replace the dwindling supplies from Ukraine, Turkey stands as a pivotal player, and the pressure is now on Brussels to come to terms with Turkey’s strategic importance. Additionally, with the future of Syria’s energy sector potentially open for business, Turkey may further solidify its position as a regional energy powerhouse.