Oil & Gas

For years, Tanzanian motorists have faced persistent fuel price pressure driven by volatile global oil markets, exchange rate weakness, and high import logistics costs. By 2026, a convergence of global market conditions and domestic structural improvements could finally begin easing pressure at the pump, offering consumers a period of relative price stability.

One key factor is the outlook for global crude oil markets. Analysts’ forecasts suggest oil prices are likely to remain subdued in 2026 due to rising global supply and weaker demand growth. Surveys point to Brent crude averaging in the low-to-mid 60 US dollars per barrel, with some forecasts warning of a slide into the 50-dollar range if oversupply intensifies, a scenario that would directly reduce the cost of imported fuel for Tanzania.

Domestically, Tanzania’s growing role as a regional energy and logistics hub is expected to reinforce these external gains. The near completion of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) will boost transit revenues, port activity in Tanga, and foreign exchange inflows. Improved fuel storage, port handling, and inland logistics are also reducing supply chain inefficiencies that historically inflated pump prices, even when global oil prices were relatively stable.

Policy management will ultimately determine how much of this relief reaches consumers. Tanzania’s fuel pricing mechanism already smooths international price volatility, and continued fiscal discipline alongside currency stability could amplify the benefits of lower global crude prices. If global oil markets remain oversupplied and domestic efficiencies hold, 2026 could mark a shift from frequent pump price shocks to a more predictable fuel pricing environment, easing inflationary pressure across transport and essential goods.