TANZANIA - Steps to ensure Electricity reliability and resilience

Sustainable supply of electricity is crucial to  attaining economic development in any country. Despite being blessed with enormous green and non-green energy resources, Africa has been in a quandary about adequate generation and supply of electricity, which has led to blackouts and load shedding and translated into electricity shortfalls. This publication summarizes the framework for action and a broad menu of options available to policy makers to bridge a supply demand gap in the short- to medium-term, and long term approach.

Introduction

Supply-demand tension has taken its toll in various countries around the world. Governments and utilities have faced gaps between electricity supply and demand, which has led to blackouts and load shedding and translated into electricity shortfalls. The electricity crisis has, over the years, had significant adverse impact on the nation’s socio-economic and technological development as well as standard of living of its citizens.  This publication summarizes the framework for action and a broad menu of options available to policy makers to bridge a supply demand gap in the short- to medium-term, and long term approach.

 The case of Tanzania

Tanzania is endowed with diverse forms of energy resources including natural gas, hydro, coal, biomass, geothermal, solar, wind and uranium which have not been optimally utilised. The country has been moved from a developing country to a lower middle income country category very recently, and so the government of Tanzania is developing an energy-related policy for future development, which includes enough power generation to meet country demand.

 The Electricity Sector

Tanzania’s electricity sector is dominated by the Tanzania Electric Supply Company Limited (TANESCO), which is a state owned enterprise. TANESCO is mandated to generate, transmit, and distribute electricity to all sectors of the economy in the country. The company owns and operates the national transmission system.

As of June 2020, the country’s total installed capacity for entities carrying out electricity activities for sale was 1,601.80 MW, of which 1,565.72MW was from the main grid and 36.08MW from off-grids. The generation mix in the national grid consisted of natural gas 62.41%, hydro-power 37.39%, and biomass 0.2%. The country’s maximum demand was 1,151.66MW recorded in February 2020, which has increased by 35.08MW (3.14%) from that recorded in 2019.

 Electricity Shortfall in Tanzania

Tanzania has made good progress in improving the energy sector. The country has a total installed generation capacity of 1,601.80 MW, while the country demand is about 1,151.66MW, but the recent total production deficit of approximately 345 megawatts is equivalent to 21 percent of total production, causing power rationing in the country.

The root cause of Electricity Shortfall in Tanzania

An electricity shortfall is characterized by an occurrence of electricity shortages which can find their origin in:

1) Capacity constraints: the available capacity (generation and/or transmission) is insufficient to meet peak demand;

2) Energy constraints: the desired electricity consumption of all end users, over an extended period of time, exceeds the production levels (as a result of insufficient fuel availability, such as water resources or fossil fuels, or a surge in energy demand).

Current situation of Tanzania, the source of electricity shortfall ( as reported by TANESCO) is due to insufficient fuel availability ( decrease of water level)  that results in a production deficit of approximately 345 megawatts.

The total generation of hydro-power as per generation mix share to meet demand is about 433.7 megawatts. The production deficit of 345 megawatts from Hydro-power is equal to a decrease in hydro-power generation by 79% to meet the country’s demand and decrease by 61% from its generation capacity. So, since the country's total installed capacity is 1,601 MW, the deficit of 345 MW is not the only cause of the electricity shortfall in Tanzania.

Other Possible Causes.

Availability of Power plant

The evaluation of power plant performance is one of the most important tasks at any power station. Without its availability records, the plant staff can not determine ways to improve the performance of the equipment. The causes of unavailability must be thoroughly analyzed to identify the areas for performance improvement.

By 2020 the average availability of all Hydropower generation plants was 82.85% and Gas-fired power plants were 76.28%. So, the average availability of both Hydro-power and Gas fired plants was 79.5%. This means that 20.5% of installed plants were unavailable to meet any emergency demand of the country. And this is equal to an outage of 320 MW from the total installed generation capacity of the country.

Losses in Distribution & Transmission Lines

It is a fact that the unit of electric energy generated by a power station does not match with the units distributed to the consumers. Some percentage of the units is lost in the distribution network. This difference in the generated and distributed units is known as transmission and distribution loss.

By 2020, TANESCO had a total energy loss of 15.3% which is within desired total losses in the electric supply industry as per Electricity Supply Industry - Reform Strategy and Roadmap 2014-2025 ( ESI-RSR). Though these losses are within the desired range, this 15.3% is equal to the loss of 213.4MW from total installed facilities operated by TANESCO.

Aging Infrastructure

Another reason for energy shortage and scarcity is the unmaintained infrastructure of power generating equipment, transmission, and distribution lines. Most of the energy produced through Hydro-power keeps on using outdated equipment that limits energy production.

By 2020, the total unplanned outage hours of transmission and distribution lines operated by TANESCO was 627 hours. Energy loss in transmission and distribution lines was 15.3%, and 20.5% of installed plants were unavailable to meet any emergency demand of the country. All these show the status of existing infrastructure from power generation, transmission and distribution systems. The need to upgrade the infrastructure and set a high standard of performance is critical.

Delay in Commissioning of Power Plants

There is a significant delay in the commissioning of new power plants that can fill the gap between demand and supply of energy. The result is that old plants come under huge stress to meet the daily demand for power. When supply does not match demand, it results in load-shedding and breakdown.

The current electricity shortfall is also contributed by delaying the commissioning of Kinyerezi I extension Gas Power Project with a capacity of 185 MW( Commercial Operation Date 2021). If this project could be commissioned on time, the power deficit caused by drought could be reduced by 45.5% if the plant operated to 85% of its capacity.

Unbalanced Electricity Generation Mix

Tanzania's Electricity generation mix is dominated by Natural gas(62) and hydro(37). Though Natural gas and hydro energy give serious thought, the problem of energy crisis cannot be solved without diversifying energy sources in power generation. Experience and research show that it is important to avoid over dependence on any single fuel type.

Electricity shortfall was also contributed by unbalanced energy mix. Decrease of water level was enough reason to cause underproduction of Hydro-power by 79% to meet country’s demand. This shows how the current generation mix responds to weather extremes and emergencies. Though Tanzania has big potential for Natural Gas and Hydro-power, the electricity generation mix is still not reliable.

To serve a country's demand, electricity must be generated exactly when it is needed. Ensuring reliability under all circumstances, including weather extremes and emergencies, requires a Nation to use 24/7 energy sources, such as natural gas, hydro-power, Geothermal, and coal, to generate reliable energy consistently. These 24/7 energy sources are key to TANESCO’s ability to serve all customers, including businesses and industries whose energy usage differs from that of most residential customers.

Measures to Manage an Electricity Shortfall.

Short-term measures need to go hand-in-hand with long-term steps to strengthen Electricity reliability and resilience. While it may not be known when or why, it is certain that there will be a future electricity crisis. Elements of a tailored response to an electricity crisis will depend on:

a) The origin of the supply-demand gap

b) The expected duration of the shortfall (and the lead time available)

c) The identification and evaluation of measures that can realistically be implemented (from both the supply and demand side)

d) The institutional organization of the sector. There is no one-size-fits-all solution to an electricity crisis. Policy makers should design a tailored response on the basis of these four factors.

One of the most important elements of an electricity emergency response program is anticipating and preparing for the possibility of a crisis. Emergency response actions in managing an electricity crisis involves actions to alleviate the capacity or energy constraints through a combination of measures affecting either the demand for electricity or the supply.

International experience shows that successful management of an electricity crisis requires the implementation of a range of measures including,

1) Strong energy conservation campaigns,

2) Actions to reduce end-use consumption,

3) Efforts to reduce energy production losses and remove transmission bottlenecks,

4) Measures to increase supply

Demand Side Measures.

1. Mass Media Campaigns as Short- and Long-Term Energy Saving Strategy 

Though the country’s maximum demand was 1,151.66MW as recorded in February 2020, but peak electricity demand is expected to roughly quadruple by 2025 to 4,000 MW. To help meet  demand reduction, GoT should launch mass media campaigns as short- and long-term energy saving strategy to reduce country demand as projected by 2025. 

Campaign can be integrated with  most visible components like radio, television, social network and print mass media aimed at getting consumers and businesses to take energy-saving actions. Full organized and participation of Central government, local government, private sectors, training institution (primary, secondary, collage and university) are key to archive  the goal.

2) Encourage Public Sector Energy Conservation

Re-allocating public sector uses of energy to more socially responsible purposes that conserve electricity.

3) Control And Encourage Use Of Energy Efficiency Appliance 

To launch appliance replacement program is so expensive approach, but GoT through  TBS can control quality of energy efficiency appliance produced within the country or those imported.

5. Provide consumer  awareness about energy efficiency appliance
5. Establish standards or labelling scheme for energy efficiency appliance
5. Remove tax (Value added Tax) on energy efficiency appliance and equipment

study found that a changeover to more energy-efficient appliances will have a beneficial effect on the electrical energy consumption of domestic households, with annual average reductions in electrical consumption of 23% for the households.

Supply Side Measures.

Supply side responses to the electricity crisis primarily involve increasing generation capacity and its availability. In addition to a country’s long term electricity expansion plan, there are short- and medium-term opportunities to improve the performance of currently installed equipment which can be the most expeditious means to increase effective generating capacity.

1) Improve Generation and Transmission Outputs (Increase Availability)

It is time for GoT to ensure adequate and timely investment in generation and transmission infrastructure. Allowing improvements in the output of existing assets in the sector, but data on availability limitations needs to be readily available in power plants.

Upgrading infrastructure and monitoring transmission and distribution lines are crucial toward energy losses management, and involvement of community in infrastructure protection is best practice of infrastructure reliability.

2) Expedite Completion of Plants Under Construction

The GoT can start with plants and transmission lines in expansion plans and advance the completion date to prevent schedule slippages. Cost of expediting efforts or incentives to contractors and owners to adhere to reduced schedule, need to determine effectiveness of expediting the schedule.

3) Offer Power Purchase Agreement (PPA’s) on a short term basis

Integrate backup generation into the dispatch pool for peaking by offering Purchase Agreement to make use of existing operating equipment. Need to create Purchase Agreement with appropriately lined and priced incentives to effectively target backup generation options

4. Diversifying Electricity Generation Mix

Since Tanzania electricity generation mix is dominated by Natural gas(62%) and hydro(37%), and commissioning of Nyerere hydro power project will add more reliance on unreliable hydropower plants, therefore GoT must plan to increase coal-fired capacity to help  diversifying  power generation for reliable supply.

The availability, reliability, affordability, accessibility and quality of electricity supply have been major concerns by stakeholders including the GoT, customers and business partners. Despite various efforts by TANESCO, the improvement of service delivery has not been fully met as expected.

Ideally, a country will be able to reduce the likelihood of a crisis through strong planning. However, external shocks and the possibility of weaknesses in planning, or the combination of various factors, make the probability for an electricity crisis sufficiently high to warrant the active preparation of an emergency response plan.

In addition, many of the actions set out above (such as energy efficiency, rehabilitation, or re-powering) remain relevant under normal planning situations and may in fact be least-cost. Most importantly, experience shows that the better a government is prepared and equipped to address a potential electricity crisis, the higher the chances for sound energy sector growth and for mitigating the social and economic impacts in the event of such a crisis.